减速步伐中的中国经济一旦放缓增长速度,其导致的经济减速绝不是一个短暂的回落。在行业前景层面,基于中国经济遭遇紧缩之后的减速背景,我们试图从盈利增长周期延长的角度去探寻行业的成长轨迹。我们认为投资机会并不绝对的分配在或上游或下游行业,行业间及行业内的分化将成为一条主线贯穿在2004年,乃至2005年。在对行业盈利增长周期进行分析之后,对于周期类行业与消费类行业如何定价?周期类公司的估值与什么有关?消费类公司是否该享有较高溢价?问题,本刊将连续两期就此进行深入剖析。 If the Chinese economy in the pace of deceleration slowed down its growth rate, its economic slowdown would by no means be a temporary retreat. In the industry outlook, based on the slowdown after the tightening of the Chinese economy, we are trying to find the path to growth in the industry from the perspective of an extended profit growth cycle. We believe that the absolute distribution of investment opportunities in or upstream or downstream industries, industry and industry differentiation will become the main line throughout 2004 and even in 2005. After analyzing the earnings growth cycle of the industry, how do we value the cyclical industry and the consumer industry? What are the valuation of cyclical companies and what is the premium of the consumer companies? In two consecutive issues, In-depth analysis.