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理论界和实务界普遍认为流动性过剩是导致股市、房市价格上涨的重要原因。自2006年下半年以来,央行接连实施紧缩性货币政策,但都未影响到股市和房市的价格上涨势头。论文从资本市场开放、人民币升值与居民资产结构调整三个角度对我国股市近期的上涨进行理论分析,认为我国资本市场对内对外的逐步开放、人民币缓慢升值与居民资产结构调整是我国股市近期上升的主要原因,并指出股市上涨的“流动性过剩”假说存在认识误区,新形势下紧缩性货币政策调控股市存在困难。
It is generally accepted by theorists and practitioners that excess liquidity is an important reason for the price rise in the stock market and housing market. Since the second half of 2006, the central bank has successively implemented the tightening monetary policy, but none has affected the price rise in the stock market and the housing market. The thesis analyzes the recent rising of the stock market in our country from three aspects: the opening of the capital market, the appreciation of the renminbi and the adjustment of the resident assets structure. It thinks that the capital market of our country is gradually opened to the inside and outside, the RMB appreciation slowly and the adjustment of the resident assets structure are the recent rise of our stock market And pointed out that there is misunderstanding in the stock market’s rising “excess liquidity” hypothesis. In the new situation, the tightening monetary policy has difficulties in controlling the stock market.