在技术发展不确定的情形下,研究企业的技术采纳行为。结合技术发展的实际情况,引入指数分布对技术一次改进量进行假设,构建企业技术采纳的决策模型,并通过仿真分析发现:(1)在技术一次平均改进量相等的的前提下,与均匀分布的情况相比,企业至少需要等待更长的时间才会选择采纳新技术;(2)在一定条件下,单位时间内技术改进越频繁、一次平均改进量越大、折现率越低、企业初始技术水平越低、技术采纳成本越高,企业在选择采纳新技术前至少需要等待的时间越长。 In the case of technological development is uncertain, the study of enterprise technology adoption behavior. Combined with the actual situation of technological development, we introduce the exponential distribution to make assumptions on the amount of primary improvement of technology and construct the decision-making model of enterprise technology adoption. Through the simulation analysis, we find: (1) With the average amount of technology improvement equal to the average, (2) under certain conditions, the more frequent technological improvements per unit of time, the greater the average improvement, the lower the discount rate, the enterprise The lower the initial skill set, the higher the cost of technology adoption, and the longer the organization needs to wait before it chooses to adopt the new technology.