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应用水电工程的能值足迹模型,构建生态盈余(EP)、生态影响系数(γ)、生态平衡时间(Te)、生态盈余时间(Ts)参数,实现对三峡工程建设期和运行期生态效应的定量评价。研究表明:1)三峡工程建设期的能值足迹占用为5.92×10~8hm~2,水库移民是其主要方面(占56.12%),做好移民工作是三峡工程成败的关键。2)2014年,三峡工程的生态承载力供给为4.38×10~7hm~2,对社会、经济和环境贡献最大的是水力发电(占59.48%),其次是库区航运、对下游的补水和防洪效益,分别占15.45%、9.74%和7.36%。3)库区水质污染是三峡工程运行期的最大影响因素,每年的能值足迹占用为1.04×10~7hm~2(占70.94%),其中,COD、TN、TP和Hg分别占28.7%、26.50%、5.75%和5.37%;其次是生态及地质灾害等的防治(占21.68%);泥沙淤积的影响比预计的小(占6.20%)。控制入库水污染物并对已经入库的水污染物采取减量化措施,是控制和减小三峡工程对社会、经济和环境影响的关键。4)在维持2012—2014年平均投入产出、合理使用年限为150 a的情况下,三峡工程将在2026年实现生态平衡;生态影响系数为0.15,影响等级为Ⅰ级,三峡工程对社会、经济和环境的影响是积极有利的。
The ecological footprint (EP), ecological influence coefficient (γ), ecological equilibrium time (Te) and ecological surplus time (Ts) are constructed by using the emergy footprint model of hydropower project to realize the ecological effect during the construction period and operation period of the Three Gorges Project Quantitative evaluation. The research shows that: 1) The energy footprint of the Three Gorges Project occupies 5.92 × 10 ~ 8hm ~ 2 and the reservoir resettlement is the main aspect (accounting for 56.12%). The key to the success or failure of the Three Gorges Project is to do a good job of resettlement. 2) In 2014, the ecological carrying capacity of the Three Gorges Project was 4.38 × 10 ~ 7hm ~ 2, and the largest contribution to society, economy and environment was hydroelectric power (accounting for 59.48%), followed by shipping in the reservoir area, Flood control benefits accounted for 15.45%, 9.74% and 7.36% respectively. 3) The water pollution in the reservoir area is the most important factor affecting the operation of the Three Gorges Project. The annual energy footprint is 1.04 × 10 ~ 7hm ~ 2 (accounting for 70.94%), of which COD, TN, TP and Hg account for 28.7% 26.50%, 5.75% and 5.37%, followed by prevention and treatment of ecological and geological disasters (21.68%). The impact of sedimentation is smaller than expected (6.20%). Controlling the storage of water pollutants and reducing the amount of water pollutants already in storage is the key to controlling and reducing the social, economic and environmental impacts of the Three Gorges Project. 4) The Three Gorges Project will achieve ecological balance in 2026 with the average input and output of 2012-2014 maintained at a reasonable useful life of 150 years; the ecological impact coefficient is 0.15, the impact grade is Grade I, and the Three Gorges Project is responsible for the social, The economic and environmental impact is positive and favorable.