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基于1995~2013年江西省农业主要碳排放源诸如耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量及农业机械动力等方面的统计数据,测算了江西省近20年来农业碳排放量及其变化,并探讨了碳排放的影响因素。根据测算结果显示,近20年来江西省农业碳排放在总量上逐年增加,而在碳排放量的构成中,化肥为最主要来源,其他构成依次为农药、农膜、农用柴油、灌溉等。在对影响农业碳排放的因素进行深入分析后,得知农业经济发展对碳排放量变化的影响最为明显,在抑制农业碳排放增长方面,农业生产效率、农业生产结构以及劳动力规模等发挥了重要作用,其中农业生产效率发挥的作用最大,抑制效果最为明显,而农业生产结构和农业劳动力规模也达到了一定的抑制效果,但效果甚微。
Based on the statistical data of major agricultural sources of carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province from 1995 to 2013 such as cultivated land area, effective irrigated area, fertilizer application rate and agricultural machinery power, the agricultural carbon emissions and their changes in Jiangxi Province during the past 20 years were calculated and discussed The impact of carbon emissions. According to the calculation results, the total agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province have increased year by year in the past 20 years, while chemical fertilizers are the most important sources in the composition of carbon emissions. The other components are pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural diesel and irrigation. After in-depth analysis of the factors that affect agricultural carbon emissions, we know that the impact of agricultural economic development on the changes of carbon emissions is the most obvious. In terms of curbing the growth of agricultural carbon emissions, agricultural production efficiency, agricultural production structure and labor force have played an important role The agricultural production efficiency plays the most important role and the most obvious inhibition effect. However, the agricultural production structure and agricultural labor force have also achieved some restraining effect with little effect.