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弹道式再入飞行器(BRV)的总弹道偏差(或落点偏差)的分析仍然是一门近似的科学。弹道式的弹道估算的改进,已有可能把飞行试验中出现的各种散布事件的影响,进行精确的定量研究。但是在先验基础上预测这些影响,则是个与复杂的气动热力学耦合在一起的飞行力学问题。实践已经表明,倘若没有相当多的试验及理论的反复验证,要模拟这个问题是很困难的。因此就需要建立一种全面的模拟系统,它既是完整的,又带有灵活性,足以适应为研究多种影响因素而建立的种种唯象模型。我们已经研制出了这种模拟系统,且以一种独特的混合式计算机程序来实现。程序在结构上是制成积木式的,这使得不同的程序构成部分可相互交换或更换新的。已经证实,这对于研究弹道式再入飞行器的散布现象,以及确定模型和参数的灵敏度来说,是个强有力的工具。程序采用了蒙特·卡罗统计法,这样就能较便宜地进行模拟。本文对造成散布的各种事件提出了总的看法,并对计算机程序的结构、模拟及应用作了描述。
The analysis of the total ballistic deviation (or landing error) of a ballistic reentry vehicle (BRV) remains an approximation of science. Improvements to ballistic ballistic estimates have made it possible to conduct accurate quantitative studies of the effects of various dispersion events that occur during flight tests. However, predicting these effects on the basis of transcendental dynamics is a flight mechanics problem that is coupled with complex aerodynamic thermodynamics. Practice has shown that it is difficult to model this problem without a fair amount of experimentation and theoretical verification. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive simulation system, which is both complete and flexible enough to adapt to the various phenomenological models that have been established to study a variety of influencing factors. We have developed this simulation system and implemented it in a unique hybrid computer program. The program is structurally modular, which allows different program components to be exchanged or replaced with new ones. This has proven to be a powerful tool for studying the dispersion of ballistic reentry vehicles and for determining the sensitivity of models and parameters. The program uses Monte Carlo statistics, so that it can be cheaper to simulate. This article presents a general view of the various events that cause dissemination and describes the structure, simulation and application of computer programs.