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目的建立乘积季节自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,利用该模型预测河南省甲肝发病情况并探讨其可行性。方法对2008年1月-2015年8月河南省的甲肝疫情监测数据差分平稳化,通过专家建模器筛选最优模型,利用2015年9月-2016年8月的甲肝疫情资料来拟合预期值并评价该模型的可行性。结果 2008-2015年河南省甲肝发病数逐年减少且呈现明显的季节效应;本次研究中乘积季节ARIMA(0,1,1)×(1,0,1)_(12)模型能较好的拟合既往的甲肝报告病例数,模型统计量Ljung-Box Q为21.742,P为0.115〉0.05,残差序列为白噪音;且对2015年9月-2016年8月按月报告的甲肝病例数的预测值与实际值吻合情况良好,平均误差绝对值4.67,平均相对误差绝对值为0.2。结论ARIMA模型能较好模拟、预测河南省甲肝的发病情况,该模型的预测效能将优化甲肝预防工作,有较好的推广价值。
Objective To establish ARIMA model to predict the incidence of hepatitis A in Henan Province and to explore its feasibility. Methods The data of H1N1 outbreak surveillance in Henan Province from January 2008 to August 2015 were poorly balanced. The best model was screened by expert modeler, and the expected hepatitis A outbreak data from September 2015 to August 2016 were used to fit the expectation Value and evaluate the feasibility of the model. Results The incidence of hepatitis A in Henan Province decreased year by year from 2008 to 2015 and showed obvious seasonal effects. The product season ARIMA (0,1,1) × (1,0,1) _ (12) model in this study can be better The number of reported hepatitis A cases was matched. The Ljung-Box Q of the model was 21.742, the P was 0.115> 0.05, and the residual sequence was white noise. The number of hepatitis A cases reported monthly from September 2015 to August 2016 The predicted value is in good agreement with the actual value, the average error is 4.67 and the average relative error is 0.2. Conclusion The ARIMA model can simulate well and predict the incidence of hepatitis A in Henan Province. The predictive efficacy of this model will optimize the prevention of hepatitis A and has a good promotion value.