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中国的贫困地区主要分布在山区,山地灾害的多发、易发在某种程度上成为制约贫困地区经济发展的因素之一。目前,山地灾害的研究集中于动力学研究,缺乏风险尤其是灾害致使贫困风险的研究。本文对山地灾害特有灾害与一般地质灾害的概念进行了区分;根据贫困的内涵与可量测性,定义了山地灾害的贫困脆弱性及山地灾害致贫风险;以贫困脆弱性分布和灾害危险性分布,构建区域山地灾害致贫风险评价模型,并基于此模型对少数民族特困地区—湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州(简称恩施州)进行应用研究。在示例分析中,首先利用确定性系数模型和频率比例法对山地灾害的危险性进行了评价;然后,从暴露性和应对能力2个方面选取了经济、社会及自然指标,以进行脆弱性评价;最后,利用通用灾害风险评价公式对研究区由于山地灾害导致的贫困风险在空间的分布进行评价,得到了研究区的山地灾害致贫风险分布与分级图。
China’s poverty-stricken areas are mainly distributed in mountainous areas. Multiple mountainous disasters are prone to occur, making it one of the factors constraining the economic development of impoverished areas to a certain extent. At present, the research of mountain disaster focuses on the study of dynamics, and the lack of risk especially the research on the risk of poverty caused by disaster. This paper distinguishes the concept of unique disasters and general geological hazards of mountain disasters. According to the connotation and measurability of poverty, it defines the poverty vulnerability of mountain disasters and the risk of poverty caused by mountain disasters. Based on the distribution of poverty and disasters, And build a risk assessment model of regional mountain disaster-causing risk. Based on this model, an applied research is made on Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (Enshi Prefecture), a poorly populated minority area. In the example analysis, firstly, the risk of mountain disaster is evaluated by using the deterministic coefficient model and the frequency ratio method. Secondly, the economic, social and natural indexes are selected from two aspects of exposure and coping ability to evaluate the vulnerability Finally, the risk distribution of poverty risk caused by mountainous disasters in the study area is evaluated by using general disaster risk assessment formula, and the risk distribution and grading map of mountainous disaster-causing risk in the study area are obtained.