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为提高洪水预报的精度以及修正结果的稳定性,提出了产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法。该方法基于产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法,通过引入产流误差平稳矩阵,在计算方法中增添了稳定约束项,使时段产流修正值相互联系,增强了修正结果的稳定性。应用动态系统响应曲线,反演计算出较稳定的产流误差,对时段产流进行修正。将产流误差平稳矩阵的系统响应修正方法应用于滩坑流域,并与产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法相比较,结果显示,对于流域的17场历史洪水,前者修正结果的稳定性明显优于后者,修正效果也有所改善,适用情况更加广泛。新方法具有一定的物理基础且不损失预见期,值得进一步推广与应用。
In order to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and the stability of correction results, a method of system response correction for the output error smoothing matrix is proposed. The method is based on the dynamic response curve correction method of runoff error. By introducing a smoothing matrix of runoff error, a stable constraint term is added to the calculation method, which correlates the runoff correction value and enhances the stability of the corrected result. The dynamic system response curve is applied to calculate the more stable runoff error and correct the runoff during the run. The system response correction method of a steady error matrix was applied to the beach pit basin and compared with that of the dynamic response curve of the runoff error system. The results show that for the 17 historical floods in the basin, the stability of the former correction result is obviously superior In the latter case, the corrective effect has also been improved and the application is more extensive. The new method has a certain physical basis and does not damage the forecast period, it is worth further promotion and application.