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为了系统识别区域道路交通事故伤亡风险的风险源,实现对这些风险源的定量评价,分析区域道路交通事故伤亡风险控制系统的组成要素,构建系统的控制层面作用模型。在此基础上,研究类型风险源的子风险源定量评价方法——风险源分类风险概率指数评价法。结果表明:区域道路交通事故伤亡风险控制系统由承险人员,驾驶人-车辆,道路,环境,交通流,交通安全管理,交通控制,交通安全决策等8个要素组成;运用人的因素分析和分类系统(HFACS)方法可建立区域道路交通事故伤亡风险源识别框架;用风险源分类的风险概率指数评价方法,能够得到9级定量评价结果。
In order to systematically identify the risk sources of casualty risk in road traffic accidents in the region, the quantitative evaluation of these risk sources is carried out. The compositional elements of the risk control system for road traffic accidents in the region are analyzed, and the control level model of the system is established. On this basis, we study the quantitative evaluation method of sub-risk sources of type risk sources-risk source classification risk probability index evaluation method. The results show that the system of risk control of road traffic accidents in the region is composed of 8 elements: risk-taking officers, driver-vehicle, road, environment, traffic flow, traffic safety management, traffic control and traffic safety decision-making. The classification system (HFACS) method can establish the identification framework of regional road traffic accident casualty risk sources. With the method of risk probability index evaluation of risk sources, 9 quantitative evaluation results can be obtained.