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通过对1997—2014年中国大陆30个省份面板数据的协整分析,测度了中国各省旅游业发展、国民生产总值(GDP)、碳排放及城镇化水平之间的长期均衡关系,定量分析了旅游业对GDP、碳排放及城镇化的影响程度。从全国范围来看,旅游对GDP具有显著正向影响,对碳排放具有显著负向影响,而对城镇化水平的影响为微弱的正向影响;经济发展和城镇化对旅游发展有显著正效应,而碳排放对旅游发展有显著负效应。从区域范围来看,东北地区旅游业对GDP发展的贡献率最高,华东最低;旅游业对碳排放的影响仅在西北、华南、东北3个地区呈现负效应,即旅游业起到了缓解环境污染的作用,但在其他地区旅游业却成为环境污染的新来源;旅游业对全国城镇化进程有微弱的正面影响,但在华北、华南、华东地区却表现为明显的负效应。
Through the cointegration analysis of the panel data of 30 provinces in mainland China from 1997 to 2014, the long-term equilibrium relationship among tourism development, GNP, carbon emissions and urbanization in all provinces of China was measured and quantitatively analyzed Impact of tourism on GDP, carbon emissions and urbanization. From a national perspective, tourism has a significant positive impact on GDP, a significant negative impact on carbon emissions, and a weak positive impact on urbanization; economic development and urbanization have a significant positive effect on tourism development , While carbon emissions have a significant negative effect on tourism development. From a regional perspective, tourism in northeast China has the highest contribution to GDP growth and the lowest in East China. The impact of tourism on carbon emissions shows only a negative effect in the three regions of Northwest, South China and Northeast China, ie, tourism has played a role in alleviating environmental pollution However, in other areas, tourism has become a new source of environmental pollution. Tourism has a slight positive impact on the urbanization process in China, but shows obvious negative effects in North China, South China and East China.