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本文对我国货币供应量lm0,lm1于我国股市市值之间的关系采用协整技术进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,无论lm1还是lm0与上证指数的数值均不存在因果关系,即托宾的Q理论在我国资本市场是不成立的,也说明了我国货币政策传导途径的不通畅。据此,本文认为,货币政策在我国不能通过股市市值的途径来传导并影响投资与产出。
This paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between China’s money supply lm0, lm1 and the market value of China’s stock market using co-integration technology. The empirical results show that neither lm1 nor lm0 has a causal relationship with the value of the Shanghai Composite Index, that Tobin’s Q theory is not established in China’s capital market, and it also shows that the monetary policy of our country is not smooth. Accordingly, this paper argues that monetary policy can not influence the investment and output in our country through the way of the stock market capitalization.