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直销是21世纪的朝阳产业,是新经济发展的主流趋势,美国、日本等发达国家的直销业务已经占到日用品零售市场的61.7%,而在中国,市场经济起步较晚,直销市场还没有被理性地开发,加上中国的国情、人口、民情,又决定了中国将会成为世界直销业的最大市场。科学预测直销市场的收益对公司发展战略的制定具有十分重要的意义。本文通过GM(1,1)灰色模型,以安利公司为代表,定量分析并预测了直销企业未来的收益趋势;直销企业的收益在下一季度将呈回升趋势。
Direct selling is the sunrise industry in the 21st century, which is the mainstream trend of the new economy. The direct sales business in the developed countries such as the United States and Japan already accounts for 61.7% of the daily necessities retail market. In China, the market economy started late and the direct selling market has not been Rational development, coupled with China’s national conditions, population and sentiments, also determine that China will become the largest market for direct selling in the world. Scientifically predicting the return of the direct selling market is of great significance to the formulation of the company’s development strategy. In this paper, GM (1,1) gray model, represented by Amway Corporation, quantitatively analyzes and predicts the future earnings trend of direct selling enterprises; the returns of direct selling enterprises will rebound in the next quarter.