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本研究采用中国家庭营养调查(CHNS)1989-2011年间9个年份的跟踪调查数据,利用截面回归、分组回归及混合截面回归模拟变系数面板回归,估计并比较各调查年份的大学工资溢价。实证结果表明,中国的大学工资溢价从上世纪九十年代初开始不断增长,而且即使自1999年中国实行高等教育大幅扩张以来,大学工资溢价也并没有出现下降。大学工资溢价的不断上涨首先应归功于中国经济的成功转型和劳动力市场的不断完善,使工资逐渐由“计划定制”转变为“市场决定”。此外,全球化进程中,劳动力市场对高知识、高技能人才不断增长的需求,也是引起教育回报率上升的重要原因。
In this study, 9 years of CHNS data from 1989 to 2011 in China were used to simulate variable coefficient panel regression with cross-section regression, group regression and mixed-section regression to estimate and compare the university's wage premium in each survey year. Empirical results show that the wage premium of universities in China has been on the rise since the early 1990s, and the wage premium of the university has not declined even since the great expansion of higher education in China in 1999. The rising wage premium of the university should be attributed firstly to the successful transformation of China's economy and the continuous improvement of the labor market, so that wages gradually change from “planning ” to “market decision ”. In addition, the growing demand for high-knowledge and highly skilled labor in the labor market in the globalization process is also an important reason for the rising rate of return to education.