【摘 要】
：
地铁网络的延伸可以改变地铁—公交车的接驳率,通过调整公共交通的供给结构来影响道路交通的拥堵程度.基于数据挖掘获得昆明市公交车站点与线路信息,利用RDiT(时间序列断点回归)检验了昆明市开通地铁3号线、6号线一期以调整地铁—公交车接驳率,进而影响治堵的效果.研究发现,昆明城市地铁网络的延伸显著提高了地铁—公交车的接驳率,但接驳率的提升反而加剧了道路拥堵,使新增地铁线路的治堵效应削减了11.2％;接驳率的提升带来的道路交通压力与公交车站点—地铁站点、公交车线路之间的重复率过高有关,道路交通的供需错配导致公交车
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地铁网络的延伸可以改变地铁—公交车的接驳率,通过调整公共交通的供给结构来影响道路交通的拥堵程度.基于数据挖掘获得昆明市公交车站点与线路信息,利用RDiT(时间序列断点回归)检验了昆明市开通地铁3号线、6号线一期以调整地铁—公交车接驳率,进而影响治堵的效果.研究发现,昆明城市地铁网络的延伸显著提高了地铁—公交车的接驳率,但接驳率的提升反而加剧了道路拥堵,使新增地铁线路的治堵效应削减了11.2％;接驳率的提升带来的道路交通压力与公交车站点—地铁站点、公交车线路之间的重复率过高有关,道路交通的供需错配导致公交车成为增加道路压力的关键;地铁—公交车接驳率提升增加的拥堵效应能够被地铁网络延伸带来的分流效应所抵消,总体而言,窗口期内昆明市3号线、6号线地铁线路的开通仍发挥了治堵作用.
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