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据统计,1990年至2015年,全球债券市场市值从约10万亿美元升至约90万亿美元,增长了约8倍。2008年以来,全球债务水平不断攀升,截至2015年底已达约90万亿美元。适度负债对经济增长有促进作用,但过度负债则会对经济带来负面冲击。笔者梳理了发达国家和新兴市场经济体的总体债务情况,并对降低负债的方式进行了分析。笔者认为,我国在发展经济的过程中,需加强债务约束,避免债务货币化倾向,同时应进一步推进结构改革,以促进经济增长。
According to statistics, from 1990 to 2015, the market value of the global bond market rose from about 10 trillion U.S. dollars to about 90 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of about 8 times. Since 2008, the global debt level has been on the rise. By the end of 2015, it has reached about 90 trillion U.S. dollars. Moderate debt can promote economic growth, but over-indebtedness can have a negative impact on the economy. The author sorts out the overall debt situation of developed countries and emerging market economies and analyzes the ways to reduce their liabilities. The author believes that in the process of economic development in our country, it is necessary to strengthen debt constraints and avoid the tendency of debt monetization. At the same time, we should further promote structural reforms to promote economic growth.