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研究证明,在代表性个人与政府效用最大化的情形下,存在由对外购买政府债券引发的通货膨胀上涨的经济路径。而中央银行集中持有居民外汇储备并进行投资的行为可以改变上述路径的传导机制,但无法消除外汇储备增加对通货膨胀上涨的牵引作用。本文就中国持有的外汇储备、美国国债及通货膨胀水平进行了实证分析,并提出了相关建议。
Research shows that in the case of the maximization of the representative individuals and the government’s effectiveness, there is an economic path of rising inflation caused by the government purchases of government bonds. However, the central bank’s centralized holding of resident foreign exchange reserves and investment can change the transmission mechanism of the above path, but it can not eliminate the traction of rising foreign exchange reserves on rising inflation. This article makes an empirical analysis of the foreign exchange reserves held by China, the U.S. national debt and the level of inflation, and puts forward some relevant suggestions.