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将剩余产量模型和时滞差分模型分别应用于南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)渔业数据,结果表明,比起剩余产量模型,时滞差分模型拟合的单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)曲线能够更好地捕捉到CPUE随着时间的波动。赤池信息量准则(Akaike information criterion,AIC)的结果显示,时滞差分模型比Schaefer模型的评估效果要好。时滞差分模型评估的最大可持续产量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)中值为22 490 t,80%置信区间为21 756~23 408 t;剩余产量模型评估的MSY中值为27 520 t,80%的置信区间为26 116~28 959 t。生物学参考点的结果表明目标群体在1985年以前资源状态较好;1985年~2005年的20年里处于过度捕捞状态;2005年后资源状况得到改善,但仍需加强管理。比起剩余产量模型,时滞差分模型给出了更为有效且保守的评估结果。
The residual yield model and the delay difference model were respectively applied to the fishery data of the South Atlantic albacore Thunnus alalunga. The results showed that compared with the model of the residual yield, the catch-difference unit fitted to the catch per unit unit effort, CPUE) curve to better capture CPUE fluctuations over time. Akaike information criterion (Akaike information criterion, AIC) results show that the delay difference model is better than the Schaefer model assessment. The median of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) estimated by the delay difference model is 22 490 t and the 80% confidence interval is 21 756 ~ 23 408 t. The median MSY estimated by the residual yield model is 27 520 t, 80 The confidence interval of% is 26 116 ~ 28 959 t. The results of the biological reference point indicate that the target population was well resourced before 1985; overfished during the 20 years from 1985 to 2005; and the resource status improved after 2005 but management was still to be strengthened. Compared with the remaining production model, the delay difference model gives more effective and conservative assessment results.