论文部分内容阅读
本文根据1978年以来中国的宏观经济统计数据进行模型回归检验,结果显示我国城镇登记失业率的变化与实际产出增长率之间不存在典型的奥肯规律。由于我国公开的失业率并不能反映真实的市场失业率,因此我改用就业量代替失业率,建立扩大的奥肯模型,分别对我国第一、二和三产业的就业增长与经济增长的数量关系进行估计,并得到相应的结论。
Based on China’s macroeconomic statistics since 1978, this paper tests the model regression results. The results show that there is no typical Okun law between the change of registered urban unemployment rate and the real output growth rate in our country. Because the open unemployment rate in our country can not reflect the real market unemployment rate, I use the employment instead of the unemployment rate to establish an expanded Okun model. I analyze the employment growth and the economic growth in China’s primary, secondary and tertiary industries respectively The relationship was estimated and the corresponding conclusions were obtained.