Natural history of major complications in hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis evaluated by per-recta

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AIM: To examine the correlation between the porto-systemic hypertension evaluated by portal shunt index (PSI) and life-threatening complications, Including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver failure (Child-Pugh stage progression),and esophagogastric varices.METHODS: Two hundred and twelve consecutive subjects with HCV-related cirrhosis (LC-C) underwent per-rectal portal scintigraphy. They were allocated into three groups aocording to their PSI: group Ⅰ, PSI≤10%; group Ⅱ, 10%<PSI<30%;and group Ⅲ, 30%≤PSI. Of these, selected 122 Child-Pugh stage A (Child A) subjects were included in analysis (a mean follow-up period of 5.9±5.4 years, range 6 mo-21 years).RESULTS: No significant correlation between PSI and cumulative probability of HCC Incidence was observed.Cumulative probability of Child A to B progression was tended to be higher in group Ⅲ than in group Ⅰ, and significantly higher in group Ⅲ than in group Ⅱ (62% vs 34%, 62% vs 37%; P = 0.060, <0.01; respectively).Cumulative probability of varices tended to be higher In group Ⅲ than in group Ⅰ (31% vs 12%, P = 0.090). On multivariate analyses, significant correlation between PSI and Child A to B progression was observed, and no significant correlation between PSI and HCC incidence or varices progression was observed.CONCLUSION: Patients with LC-C of Child A will progress to Child B rapidly after their PSI reaches 30% or higher.PSI can be used to predict occult progressive porto-systemic shunting and liver failure non-invasively. It indicates that PSI may play an important role in follow-up of the portosystemic hypertension gradient for outpatients with LC unlike hepatic venous catheterization.
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