一、农业波动及其对国民经济的影响 建国40年来我国的农业总产值,粮食产量不仅存在明显的周期波动,而且这种波动还具有高频振荡的特点。第一,1949—1987年间,农业总产值波动9次,平均约4年波动一次,粮食产量波动10次;第二,1952—1987年间,农业总产值平均波动幅度为10.2％,比美国农业平均波动幅度高出一倍,而峰值与谷值的落差很大。农业总产值波峰值为17.8％(1950年),波谷值为—13.6％(1959年),波幅为31.4％;粮食产量波峰值为16.7％(1950年),波谷值为—15.6％(1960年),波幅为32.3％。 一个产业部门的波动,如果影响的仅仅是自身的发展,那么它的重要性是有限的,然而,农业波动所产生的效应远远不囿于自身的范围而对国民经济产生了广泛和深远的影响。事实上,40年来我国农业的每一次波动都导致了或大或小的恐慌和政策调整,正是农业波动力度的强力扩张,形成了我国经济 First, the agricultural fluctuations and its impact on the national economy 40 years after the founding of China’s agricultural output value, grain output not only there is significant cyclical fluctuations, and this volatility also has the characteristics of high-frequency oscillations. First, between 1949 and 1987, the total agricultural output fluctuated nine times, fluctuating on average about four years once and the grain output fluctuated ten times. Second, during 1952-1987, the average agricultural output value fluctuated at an average rate of 10.2% Fluctuation twice as high, but the gap between the peak and the bottom of a large gap. The peak value of agricultural output was 17.8% (1950), the trough was - 13.6% (1959), the amplitude was 31.4%; the peak of grain yield was 16.7% (1950) and the trough was - 15.6% (1960 ), Volatility of 32.3%. The fluctuation of an industrial sector is of limited importance if it only affects its own development. However, the effect of agricultural fluctuations is far from its own scope and has a wide-reaching and far-reaching impact on the national economy influences. In fact, every fluctuation of our country’s agriculture over the past 40 years has led to panic attacks and larger or smaller adjustments. It is precisely this dynamic expansion of agricultural fluctuation that has shaped our economy