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本文结合我国二元经济结构的特殊国情,在对标准的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森模型拓展的基础上,运用我国与美国的数据对人民币实际汇率的变动趋势进行了实证检验。结果表明,在标准的和拓展的两种模型下,人民币实际汇率均存在显著的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应,即我国与美国间可贸易部门和不可贸易部门生产率的差异决定了两国间相对物价水平的差异。其中,拓展模型更加适应我国实际国情,其效应比标准模型显著得多。巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说的分析框架对揭示人民币实际汇率升值的必然趋势有很强的解释作用。
Based on the expansion of the standard Balassa-Samuelson model, this paper uses the data of China and the United States to test the changing trend of the real exchange rate of RMB with the special national conditions of China’s dual economic structure. The results show that there are significant Balassa-Samuelson effects in RMB real exchange rate under both standard and expanded models, that is, the difference in productivity between tradable sectors and non-tradable sectors between China and the United States determines the difference between the two countries The relative price level difference. Among them, the expansion model is more adapted to China’s actual national conditions, the effect is much more significant than the standard model. The analytical framework of the Balassa-Samuelson effect hypothesis has a strong explanatory role in revealing the inevitable trend of RMB real exchange rate appreciation.