文章以已有研究成果及研究现状为基础,就合理违约概率的确定、担保比例、可用比例及KMV模型的适用度及精确度等方面进行驳斥及商榷,借此点明通过修正的KMV模型预测确定市政债券的合理规模时应该注意的几个问题,最后得出市政债券在发行初期的合理规模应该保持在GDP的1%左右,最多不应该超过GDP的1.5%的结论。 Based on the existing research results and research status quo, the article refutes and discusses the probability of reasonable default, the proportion of guarantee, the available ratio and the applicability and accuracy of the KMV model, so as to point out that the KMV model Several issues that should be paid attention to in determining the reasonable scale of municipal bonds are concluded. Finally, it is concluded that the reasonable scale of municipal bonds should be maintained at about 1% of GDP at the very beginning of the issuance, and the maximum should not exceed 1.5% of GDP.