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叶利钦时期俄罗斯产业结构在经济转型过程中发生了自发性调整,出现了第一、二产业结构比重下降,第三产业结构比重上升的趋势。这不能从表象上认为是俄罗斯产业结构优化的表现。产业的某些内部变化依然表现出结构衰退的迹象,如第二产业出现了重轻结构畸形加剧和经济能源化、原材料化趋势加重的迹象,第三产业的发展也是以低端的商业和餐饮服务业为主。本文从经济转型的视角解读叶利钦时期俄罗斯产业结构的演变,从长期看,通过经济转型建立起来的市场经济体制可以为产业结构调整提供良好的制度环境,但文章的重点是要解释在短期内为什么会出现如此变化的产业结构。本文以发展和转型问题专家麦金农的“货币与资本互补性”理论为基础,为俄罗斯产业结构变动提供一个新的分析视角,同时也考察了宏观经济衰退的原因。
During the Yeltsin period, Russia’s industrial structure underwent a spontaneous adjustment in the process of economic restructuring. The first and second industrial structures saw a decline in their share of the industrial structure and a rise in the proportion of the tertiary industry. This can not be viewed in appearance as the manifestation of the optimization of Russia’s industrial structure. Some internal changes in the industry still show signs of structural recession. For example, the secondary industry witnessed signs of intensified structural abnormalities in light and light, energy-economy, and raw materialization. The development of the tertiary industry is also based on low-end commercial and catering Service-based. In the long run, the market economic system established through economic restructuring can provide a good institutional environment for the adjustment of industrial structure. However, the emphasis of this article is to explain why in the short term There will be such a change in the industrial structure. Based on the theory of “complementarity of money and capital” developed by McKinnon, an expert on development and transition, this paper provides a new perspective for the analysis of changes in the industrial structure of Russia and at the same time examines the reasons for the macroeconomic downturn.