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目的探讨北京2013年1月雾霾事件PM_(2.5)暴露对城区和郊县居民呼吸系统疾病死亡影响的急性健康效应。方法收集2013—2014年间北京PM_(2.5)浓度、温度、相对湿度,以及二区县(某城区和某郊县)呼吸系统疾病死亡数据;以连续3 d以上超过2013—2014年PM_(2.5)年均浓度为基准对2013年1月雾霾事件划分时间段;基于流行病学事件回顾性研究,使用广义线性模型,同时控制星期效应、死亡时间趋势、日均温和日相对湿度等混杂因素,分析北京2013年1月雾霾事件各时间段内人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险是否与非雾霾事件期存在差异,并通过敏感性分析观察模型稳定性。结果 2013—2014年北京PM_(2.5)年平均浓度和2013年1月雾霾事件期间PM_(2.5)日均浓度分别是99.75μg/m~3和194.30μg/m~3。广义线性模型结果显示与2013—2014年非雾霾事件期比较,该雾霾事件1月10—16日时间段内PM_(2.5)污染暴露使得二区县居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别提高75.93%(95%CI:14.13%~171.21%)和147.81%(95%CI:11.62%~450.16%);而在后续两个雾霾时间段(1月18—23日和1月26—31日)中PM_(2.5)暴露对于呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响与非雾霾事件期无统计学差异(P>0.05)。结论北京2013年1月10—16日雾霾事件PM_(2.5)高暴露期所致人群呼吸系统死亡风险增加。
Objective To investigate the acute health effects of Beijing PM2.5 exposure on smog events in January 2013 on the death of respiratory diseases in urban and suburban areas. Methods Data on PM_ (2.5) concentration, temperature and relative humidity in Beijing from 2013 to 2014 and mortality data of respiratory diseases in two counties (one urban area and one suburban area) were collected. The data of PM_ (2.5) Based on the retrospective study of epidemiological events, the generalized linear model was used to control the confounding factors such as the effect of week, the trend of death time, the relative humidity of average daily temperature and so on. To analyze whether there is a difference between the risk of death from respiratory diseases and the non-haze event in each time period of Beijing haze incident in January 2013 and to observe the stability of the model through sensitivity analysis. Results The average daily PM_ (2.5) concentrations in Beijing during 2013-2014 and PM_ (2.5) during the haze episode in January 2013 were 99.75μg / m ~ 3 and 194.30μg / m ~ 3, respectively. The results of generalized linear model show that compared with the non-haze events of 2013-2014, the exposure to PM 2.5 pollution during January 10-16 in this haze event increased the risk of death from respiratory diseases by 75.93% (95% CI: 14.13% ~ 171.21%) and 147.81% (95% CI: 11.62% ~ 450.16%). In the next two haze periods (January 18-23 and January 26-31) There was no significant difference between the PM 2.5 exposure and the non-haze event (P> 0.05). Conclusion The risk of death of respiratory system in Beijing population during the high PM_ (2.5) exposure period increased from January 10 to January 16, 2013 in Beijing.