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许多国家和组织希望在G20里得到个席位,但是他们并不知道自己想要说什么全球势力在变化。自从19世纪初开始的西方世界的主导权已开始改变,强国仍富,但一些新的力量在崛起。世界正进入这样一个不同寻常的水域,没有地图指导我们前行。尽管哪些国家将主导全球GDP的猜测满天飞,但长期的经济的猜测一般最终都是错误的。四年前,也就是金融危机爆发前,在我参与的一项2025年全球趋势的研究中,我们将前景分为四类:相对的确定性、相对的不确定性、关键的不确定性(我们实际上可能不知道,但是结果却将会有重大的影响,比如说气候变化)、以及“黑天鹅效应”(一些意想不到的事件导致巨大的干扰以至最终破坏整体的趋势)。
Many countries and organizations want seats in the G20, but they do not know what they want to say about what the global power is changing. Since the dominance of the Western world begun in the early 19th century has begun to change, the great powers are still rich, but some new forces are emerging. The world is entering such an unusual area of water that no map leads us forward. Despite speculation over which countries dominate global GDP, long-term economic speculation is generally ultimately wrong. Four years ago, before the outbreak of the financial crisis, we divided the outlook into four categories in a 2025 global trend study that I participated in: relative certainty, relative uncertainty, critical uncertainty We may actually not know it, but the result will have a significant impact, such as climate change), and the “black swan effect” (unexpected events that led to huge disruptions that eventually undermined the overall trend).