论文部分内容阅读
从高速公路的最长设计年限角度出发,采用定量与定性、理论与实际、推理与计算相结合的多重研究方法对拟建高速公路交通量进行综合分析预测。在对项目所在地区历年社会经济与交通运输资料分析的基础上,进行社会经济发展趋势预测,并根据交通运输指标与社会经济指标之间的相互关系,预测未来交通运输增长率,从而进行交通量发生吸引预测,得到未来年各小区趋势型产生量、吸引量;随后,采用福莱特(Fratar)法预测交通量的空间分布,得到未来特征年的出行分布OD表(趋势型);在此基础上,采用经济可接近性模型和国内生产总值潜力模型计算诱增系数,得到区域诱增交通量。再利用诱增型(含趋势型)的重力模型法,得到诱增(含趋势型)交通量;最后,根据未来路网上车辆运行的时间、费用构建路段阻抗函数,把分布交通量分配到未来路网上,通过交通量分配工作,得到趋势型+诱增型交通量的分配预测结果。根据上述研究结果,将各特征年的OD分布分配到相应的路网,并最终得到各特征年拟建项目分配结果。
Based on the longest design life of expressway, a comprehensive analysis and prediction of the traffic volume of the expressway is made with multiple research methods combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, theory and practice, reasoning and calculation. Based on the analysis of the socio-economic and transportation data of the past years in the project area, we will forecast the trend of social and economic development and predict the future growth rate of transportation according to the interrelationship between transport and social and economic indicators to make traffic volume Then, the Fratar method is used to predict the spatial distribution of traffic volume to get the travel distribution OD table (trend type) in the future characteristic year. Based on this, On the basis of the economic accessibility model and the potential GDP model, the coefficient of entrainment is calculated to obtain the induced traffic in the region. Finally, using the time and cost of the vehicles on the road network to build the section impedance function, the distributed traffic volume is allocated to the future On the road network, through the allocation of traffic volume, the distribution forecast of the trend + induced traffic volume is obtained. According to the above research results, the OD distribution of each characteristic year is assigned to the corresponding road network, and finally the distribution result of the proposed project in each characteristic year is obtained.