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使用1961—2009年云南烤烟种植区62个气象代表站的逐日平均气温和最低气温,基于低温指标和权重指数构建了烤烟低温冷害指数模型,采用线性趋势及M-K突变检测方法,分析了低温冷害指数的变化特征。结果表明:1961—2009年春、夏、秋烤烟低温冷害指数全省平均值逐年变化均呈减弱趋势,春季减弱最为显著,夏秋减弱趋势不及春季且不显著;春、夏烤烟低温冷害指数全省平均值在20世纪60年代和70年代最高,在2001—2009年最低,秋季则为60年代最高,70年代最低;各季节中低温冷害指数呈减弱趋势及变化显著的站点春、夏季最多,秋季最少;M-K检测表明,春季低温冷害指数全省逐年平均值变化趋势显著,并在1997年出现突变点,而夏季和秋初变化均不显著,春季全省发生显著突变的站点达30%,但夏秋季不到10%,各站点出现突变的时间以20世纪80年代及90年代末期为主。
Based on the daily mean temperature and minimum temperature of 62 meteorological stations in Yunnan tobacco growing area from 1961 to 2009, the low temperature chilling injury index model of tobacco was constructed based on the low temperature index and weight index. The linear tendency and MK mutation detection method were used to analyze the low temperature chilling injury index The changing characteristics. The results showed that the average value of chilling injury index of tobacco in the spring, summer and autumn of 1961-2009 showed a decreasing trend year by year, with the weakest in spring, the weakened trend in summer and autumn was not as significant as that in spring; The values were the highest in the 1960s and 1970s, the lowest in 2001-2009, the highest in the 1960s, and the lowest in the 1970s in the fall. The indices of low and intermediate temperature chilling injury showed a trend of weakening and significant changes in each season with the highest in spring and summer and the lowest in autumn ; MK test showed that the average annual chilling injury index of the province showed a significant annual change trend, with a sudden change point in 1997, but no significant change in summer and early autumn. In spring, there were 30% sites with significant mutation in the province, but summer Less than 10% in autumn, the site of mutations occurred in the 20th century, 80’s and 90’s based.