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针对传统脆弱性评价方法无法同时体现脆弱性的内涵及脆弱性与各影响要素间的相互作用机制,本文建立了基于投影寻踪的脆弱性S型函数模型体系.首先建立水资源脆弱性评价指标体系;其次是建立投影寻踪模型进行指标的降维处理;再次是建立水资源脆弱性S型函数模型;最后利用快速样本聚类对水资源脆弱性进行分类.针对泉州市2000~2012年的水资源脆弱性的实例研究,表明了模型的适用性.地下水超采比例、水资源开发利用率及人均水资源量是影响泉州市水资源脆弱性的敏感因子.2020年,在50%、75%及95%保证率下,泉州市水资源分别处于轻度脆弱、中等脆弱和极度脆弱水平;在空间分布上,鲤城区和石狮市的水资源处于极度脆弱水平,丰泽区、晋江市与惠安县的水资源处于强脆弱水平,泉港区的水资源处于中度脆弱水平,洛江区和南安市的水资源处于轻度脆弱水平,其它区县的水资源不脆弱.
In view of the traditional vulnerability assessment method can not simultaneously reflect the content of the vulnerability and the interaction between the vulnerability and the impact of the elements, this paper established a Vulnerability S-function model system based on projection pursuit.First, the establishment of water vulnerability assessment index The second is to establish a projection pursuit model to reduce the dimensionality of the index; the second is to establish a S-function model of water vulnerability; and the second is to classify the vulnerability of water resources by using fast sample clustering.For the purpose of Quanzhou from 2000 to 2012 The case study of water resource vulnerability shows the applicability of the model.The proportion of groundwater over-exploitation, water resources development and utilization rate and water resource per capita are the sensitive factors affecting the vulnerability of water resources in Quanzhou.In 2020, The water resources of Quanzhou City are in a mildly vulnerable, moderately fragile and extremely fragile level, respectively; and in terms of spatial distribution, water resources in Licheng District and Shishi City are extremely vulnerable. Fengze District, Jinjiang City and The water resources of Hui’an County are in a strong and fragile level. The water resources of Quangang District are at a moderately weak level. The water resources of Luogang District and Nan’an City are at a mildly vulnerable level. Water districts are not vulnerable.