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本文指出,在系统所受的外部干扰,系统内部的参数以及对系统响应的限制中存在的任何不确定性(不仅仅随机性)因素,都会导致系统安全程度的不确定性。这样就扩大了可靠度的概念,我们称之为“广义可靠度”。 目前人们已经逐步深刻地认识到,在系统所包含的不确定性中除随机性外,在很多情况下还有模糊性。本文从一般的情况出发,在同时考虑这些随机性和模糊性的基础上,提出了具有多种失效模式的复杂系统的模糊-随机可靠度的分析方法。为此,定义了系统的模糊响应,模糊安全准则,对模糊安全准则的满足度和系统的模糊有效域等概念。作为模糊-随机可靠度的特例,在系统只含有随机因素或只含有模糊因素的特殊情况下,即可分别得到相应的“随机可靠度”和“模糊可靠度”。前者就是目前所定义的可靠度。
This paper points out that any uncertainties (not just randomness) in the external disturbances of the system, the parameters inside the system and the limits on the response of the system will lead to the uncertainty of the degree of system security. This expands the concept of reliability, which we call “generalized reliability.” At present, people have gradually realized that there are many ambiguities in the uncertainty of the system besides randomness. Based on the general situation and taking these randomness and fuzziness into consideration, this paper proposes a fuzzy-random reliability analysis method for complex systems with multiple failure modes. Therefore, the concepts of fuzzy response, fuzzy safety criterion, the degree of satisfaction with fuzzy safety criterion and the fuzzy effective area of the system are defined. As a special case of fuzzy-random reliability, the corresponding “random reliability” and “fuzzy reliability” can be obtained under the special circumstances that the system contains only random factors or only fuzzy factors. The former is the current definition of reliability.