论文部分内容阅读
利用面板计量方法,从土地交易价格和交易量两个维度,对房地产开发商土地竞买过程是否存在显著的羊群效应进行检验和分析,其结果:(1)我国城市土地市场中,不论土地价格上涨还是下跌,不论成交量较大还是成交量较小,开发商土地竞买皆不存在明显的羊群效应。(2)在房价增幅下降时期,开发商对市场的观望情绪具有一定的传染性。(3)土地拍卖制度实施前,全国各大城市土地价格波动存在更强的集簇性;土地拍卖制度实施后,市场竞争性加强,各城市土地价格波动更能反映当地房地产市场情况。
Using panel measurement method, from the two dimensions of land transaction price and transaction volume, this paper tests and analyzes whether there is significant herding effect in the real estate developer’s land bidding process. The results are as follows: (1) In China’s urban land market, regardless of land price Up or down, whether large volume or volume smaller developers land bidding are not obvious herding. (2) During the period of declining house price increase, developers’ sentiment towards the market is contagious. (3) Prior to the implementation of the land auction system, land price fluctuations in major cities across the country were more clustered. After the implementation of the land auction system, the market was more competitive and the fluctuations in land prices in various cities could better reflect the local real estate market.