基于Logistic回归的进境海运集装箱疫情风险分析

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目的探索进境海运集装箱疫情传入的高危风险因素,据此提出防控对策。方法采用独立样本卡方检验考察不同季度、来源地区、货物种类及是否来自疫区的进境集装箱重箱疫情检出率差异,采用非条件Logistic逐步回归分析探索疫情传入的高危风险因素。结果来自非疫区(OR=3.148,P=0.048<0.05)、秋季(OR=4.314,P<0.001)、装载机械机电产品(P<0.001)的入境集装箱疫情风险较高。结论进境海运集装箱卫生状况不容乐观,疫情携带率较高,强化查验人员培训,完善集装箱统计报表,加强集装箱质量分析,建立集装箱风险管理系统,可有效防范疫情入境。 Objective To explore the risk factors of high-risk incoming containerized containerized cargoes entering China and put forward prevention and control measures accordingly. Methods The independent sample chi-square test was used to investigate the differences in the detection rates of incoming containerized outbreaks in different quarters, regions of origin, types of goods and whether they originated from epidemic areas. Non-conditional logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors at higher risk of outbreaks. The results were from the pest free area (OR = 3.148, P = 0.048 <0.05). In autumn (OR = 4.314, P <0.001), the containerized containerized cargoes with mechanical and electrical products (P <0.001) were at higher risk. Conclusion The condition of entering shipping containers is not optimistic, the carrying rate of epidemics is high, training of inspectors is strengthened, statistics of containers are improved, container quality analysis is strengthened and a container risk management system is established. This can effectively prevent outbreaks from entering the country.
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