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[目的]对陕西省南秦岭典型土质滑坡形成机制及风险进行研究和评价,为该区地质灾害的防治提供支持。[方法]以陕西商洛市山阳县山阳中学滑坡为研究对象,通过现场调查、勘察及室内试验开展研究。[结果]山阳中学滑坡现处于基本稳定状态,但不排除遭遇极端气候下复活的可能,滑坡复活概率为7.45%。[结论]区域地壳差异性运动是山阳中学滑坡形成的内动力因素;降雨是该滑坡启动的主要外在诱因;滑坡威胁范围内人员在最大风险中丧命的年概率为:1.70×10-3/annum。
[Objective] The research and evaluation on the formation mechanism and risk of typical soil landslides in South Qinling of Shaanxi Province provided support for the prevention and control of geological disasters in the area. [Method] With the landslide of Shanyang Middle School in Shanyang County, Shangluo City, Shaanxi Province as the research object, the study was conducted through field investigation, investigation and laboratory test. [Result] The landslide of Shanyang Middle School is basically stable, but it is not ruled out that it is possible to revive in extreme climate. The probability of landslide resurgence is 7.45%. [Conclusions] The regional crustal differential movement is the internal dynamic factor of Shanyang middle school landslide formation. Rainfall is the main external incentive for the landslide initiation. The annual probability of people losing their lives in the risk of landslide threat is: 1.70 × 10-3 / annum.