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气候变暖和土地管理集约化改变了全球大多数地区的供水特征。因此,从科学和社会的角度,将供水不确定性纳入长期的水资源规划和管理十分重要。基于脆弱性评估的新方法,对供水变化和需求扩张下的水资源综合管理进行了系统分析。分析对象为加拿大跨省的萨斯喀彻温河流域,萨斯喀彻温河水资源保障了该流域市政、工业及农业灌溉和水力发电的用水需求。为探索当前及未来供水不确定性和灌溉需求增长条件下对水资源系统的联合效应,学者提出了扩大灌溉面积。扩大灌溉面积可能显著影响到北美最大的内陆三角洲,即萨斯喀彻温河三角洲枯水期的峰值流量。研究证实了对系统的脆弱性开展随机分析的实用性,采用随机分析,可方便人们直观表达并理解社会经济权衡这一概念。此性能评估有助于基于供水不确定性的长期水资源规划和管理。
Climate warming and intensification of land management have changed the water supply characteristics in most parts of the world. Therefore, from a scientific and social perspective, it is important to incorporate uncertainty in water supply into long-term water resource planning and management. Based on a new approach to vulnerability assessment, a systematic analysis of integrated water resources management under water supply changes and demand expansion has been carried out. The analysis targets Saskatchewan Basin, an inter-provincial Canadian province and the Saskatchewan water resources ensure the water needs of municipal, industrial and agricultural irrigation and hydroelectricity in the basin. To explore the combined effects of current and future uncertainties in water supply and demand for irrigation on water resources systems, scholars have proposed to expand irrigation areas. Increasing the area under irrigation may significantly affect the largest inland delta in North America, the peak flow in the dry season in the Saskatchewan delta. The study confirmed the practicality of stochastic analysis of the vulnerability of the system and the use of stochastic analysis to make it easier for people to express and understand the concept of socio-economic trade-offs intuitively. This performance assessment contributes to long-term water resource planning and management based on uncertainty of water supply.