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首先阐述了项目群风险管理理念,采用蒙特卡洛方法进行城市轨道交通项目群风险估计,分析风险因素的相关系数,归纳决策、设计和施工阶段风险识别关键技术。分析表明:目前还没有形成一套系统、完善和易于推广应用的风险识别和对策的城市轨道交通项目群风险管理体系。项目群内部子项目,项目群和群内项目之间相互关系需要进一步协调,项目群管理中个别领域需要系统支撑,项目群管理者自身素质有待提高,研究成果以期为今后类似的建设工程项目群风险管理提供参考。
Firstly, the concept of project risk management is described. The Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the risk of urban rail transit project. The correlation coefficient of risk factors is analyzed. The key technologies of risk identification in decision-making, design and construction stage are summarized. The analysis shows that there is not a set of risk management system of urban rail transit project which has a systematic, perfect and easy to popularize risk identification and countermeasure. The relationship among subprojects, project groups and projects within a project group needs to be further coordinated. Some areas need to be systematically supported in the project management. The quality of project managers needs to be improved. The research results are expected to be similar for the future construction projects Risk management for reference.