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提出了一种元器件应力分析和综合E-Bayes理论相结合的平均寿命预估方法,该方法基于定时截尾试验获取的无失效数据,利用元器件应力研究结果作为失效数据输入量,使得综合E-Bayes两个输入相互解耦,解决了失效数据对无失效数据的直接依赖以及与产品性能关联性弱的问题。本研究将该方法用于C919飞机应急电源系统,推导了系统平均寿命的Bayes预计模型,同时将预估结果与传统综合E-Bayes法进行比较。分析表明,使用本研究提出的综合E-Bayes算法得到的系统平均寿命预估值极差范围更小,对参数选择的稳健性更好。
A method of estimating the average life expectancy based on component stress analysis and E-Bayes theory is proposed. The method is based on the non-failure data obtained from the time-censored test. The results of component stress study are used as the input data of failure data, The two inputs of E-Bayes are decoupled from each other, solving the direct dependence of failure data on failure-free data and the weak correlation with product performance. In this study, the method was applied to C919 aircraft emergency power system, Bayesian prediction model of system average life expectancy was derived, and the predicted results were compared with the traditional synthesis E-Bayes method. The analysis shows that using the comprehensive E-Bayes algorithm proposed in this study, the average life expectancy of the system has a very narrow range of range, and the robustness of parameter selection is better.