论文部分内容阅读
通过政策调整损失函数的理论模型分析,认为负的需求冲击是构成欧洲债务危机的前提,而缺乏货币政策协调的持续性扩张财政政策是欧洲债务危机的本质原因。对2000Q1—2010Q1的“PIIGS”的季度数据进行实证分析后,发现5国独立财政政策和欧元区共同货币政策的协调机制是存在冲突的。希腊长期均衡和短期调整均存在主权债务危机风险,因而成为首个爆发危机的国家。西班牙、意大利的短期调整虽暂时缓解了主权债务危机出现的可能,但不能解决发生危机的根本问题。而爱尔兰、葡萄牙只是短期内实施了过度的积极财政计划而造成了主权债务危机假象。
By analyzing the theoretical model of the loss adjustment function of the policy adjustment, it is considered that the negative demand shock is the prerequisite for the debt crisis in Europe, while the persistent expansion of fiscal policy, which lacks the coordination of monetary policy, is the essential reason for the debt crisis in Europe. After empirical analysis of the quarterly data of PIIGS from 2000Q1 to 2010Q1, we found that the coordination mechanism between the independent financial policy of the five countries and the common monetary policy of the euro area is in conflict. Greece’s long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment of the sovereign debt crisis are the risk of existence, which became the first crisis in the country. Although short-term adjustments in Spain and Italy temporarily ease the possibility of a sovereign debt crisis, they can not solve the fundamental problem of crisis. However, Ireland and Portugal have only illegitimately assumed the sovereign debt crisis in the near term due to the over-active proactive fiscal plan.