阐述了台湾多目标水库防洪问题,建立了水库实时调度(RES-RT)模型,以确定台风期间的最优实时泄水方案。RES-RT模型由3个子模型组成:降雨量预报(QPF)模型、径流预报(RTRL)模型及水库调度优化(RESOP)模型。RESOP模型的目标是最大幅度地削减选定的下游控制点的洪峰流量和优化洪水末期水库库容。约束条件包括适用于台湾地区的洪水过程三阶段调度导则。建立的RES-RT模型已经在台湾石门水库得到应用,将历史实际调度、按现行规程和RES-RT模型调度3种方案进行了对比。结果表明,在下游控制点洪峰削减和达到洪水末期目标水库库容方面,RES-RT模型调度在3种方案中性能突出,从而在确定最佳实时泄水方案上证明了其效用。 The flood control of multi-objective reservoirs in Taiwan was expounded and a real-time reservoir (RES-RT) model was established to determine the optimal real-time drainage scheme during typhoon. RES-RT model consists of three sub-models: rainfall forecast (QPF) model, runoff forecast (RTRL) model and reservoir operation optimization (RESOP) model. The goal of the RESOP model is to minimize the peak flow of selected downstream control points and optimize the reservoir capacity at the end of the flood. Constraints include three-phase scheduling guidelines for flood processes in Taiwan. The established RES-RT model has been applied to Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. The historical actual dispatch was compared with the three schemes of current regulation and RES-RT model scheduling. The results show that RES-RT model scheduling has outstanding performance among the three schemes in terms of peak reduction at the downstream control points and reaching the target reservoir capacity at the end of the flood so that the utility is proved in determining the best real-time drainage scheme.