针对舰炮武器系统研制工程进度的风险分布特征,建立了基于多元风险概率的进度风险分析模型,给出了基于正态分布和指数分布的进度风险估算方法,并结合具体风险因素分析了舰炮武器系统研制进度风险评估的指标和准则,最后给出某型大口径舰炮研制的风险分析实例,验证了文中方法的有效性和可靠性。 Aiming at the risk distribution characteristics of naval gun weapon system development progress, a progress risk analysis model based on multivariate risk probability is established. The method of estimating the progress risk based on normal distribution and exponential distribution is given. Combining with the specific risk factors, Weapon system development progress risk assessment of the indicators and guidelines, and finally gives a large-caliber naval gun developed risk analysis examples to verify the effectiveness and reliability of the method.