上海市交通事故死亡率资料的建模与预测贺佳，倪仁宝，李伯良，李桃云，陈晓舟在我国人群死因顺位中，道路交通事故已成为一种重要死因，占各种意外伤亡的首位。本研究根据上海市道路交通事故死亡率的资料，建立数学模型，并以此模型对后五年的死亡率进行外推预测，对降低... Modeling and Forecasting Traffic Accident Mortality Data in Shanghai He Jia, Ni Renbao, Li Boliang, Li Taoyun, Chen Xiaozhou Among the causes of death in China, road traffic accidents have become an important cause of death, accounting for the highest number of accidental casualties. This study establishes a mathematical model based on the data of road traffic accident mortality in Shanghai, and uses this model to extrapolate the mortality rate for the next five years to reduce...