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水合物的形成与堵塞问题是深海油气资源开发的主要风险之一,准确预测水合物堵管的概率是保障油气管线流动安全的基础。本文将基于可靠性的极限状态方法,引入水合物堵塞风险计算中,建立了基于水合物生成及凝析液流动特性的数学模型。综合考虑管道运行参数的不确定性,运用LHS和POD方法对堵塞风险的极限状态方程进行求解,实现了以概率形式定量描述天然气凝析液管道中水合物堵塞的风险,能够比较准确预测水合物堵管时间和堵管位置,为天然气凝析液管道防堵提供理论支持。
Hydrate formation and clogging problems are one of the major risks in the exploitation of deep-sea oil and gas resources. Accurately predicting the probability of occlusion of hydrate is the basis for ensuring the safety of oil and gas pipelines. Based on the limit state method of reliability, this paper introduces the hydrate clogging risk calculation and establishes a mathematical model based on the hydrate formation and flow characteristics of condensate. Considering the uncertainties of pipeline operating parameters, the LHS and POD methods are used to solve the limit state equation of plugging risk, which realizes the probability of quantitatively describing the risk of gas hydrate blockage in natural gas condensate pipelines, and can accurately predict hydrate Plugging time and plugging position, providing theoretical support for natural gas condensate pipeline plugging.