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本文在一个开放经济新凯恩斯DSGE框架下,对中国1992—2012年间的货币与财政政策组合范式进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,中国的货币与财政政策组合总体上符合PMPF范式,即被动型货币政策和被动型财政政策的组合。这种组合有效地确保了政府债务的可控性,但由于货币政策对通胀的反应力度不足,容易滋生通胀和泡沫经济。进一步的模拟分析表明,从PMPF范式逐渐转向AMPF范式应该成为中国货币与财政政策组合范式转变的基本路径选择。
In this paper, under the framework of a new Keynes DSGE of open economy, this paper empirically analyzes China’s monetary and fiscal policy portfolio paradigm from 1992 to 2012. The empirical results show that China’s monetary and fiscal policy portfolio generally complies with the PMPF paradigm, that is, a combination of passive and passive fiscal policies. This combination effectively ensures the controllability of government debt, but inflation and the bubble economy tend to breed due to the insufficient response of monetary policy to inflation. Further simulations indicate that the gradual shift from the PMPF paradigm to the AMPF paradigm should be the basic choice of the paradigm shift in China’s monetary and fiscal policy portfolio.