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本文通过将居民消费内生化,构建投入产出扩展模型,侧重考察当前居民收入、消费及产业结构对我国政府投资效应的影响,并结合相关数据进行实证研究。结果表明,平均消费扩张效应对投资产出约有44%的贡献;政府投资不同产业部门对经济拉动的能力存在差异;政府投资所拉动的经济增长在各产业间分布极不均衡。基于实证结果,本文认为拉动居民消费和升级产业结构是我国政府投资谋求长期增益的有效途径。
This paper builds an extension model of input-output by focusing on the internalization of household consumption, focusing on the impact of current household income, consumption and industrial structure on the government investment effect in China, and empirical research based on the relevant data. The results show that the average consumption expansion effect contributes about 44% of the investment output. There are differences in the ability of government investment in different industries to drive the economy. The economic growth driven by government investment is extremely uneven across industries. Based on the empirical results, this paper believes that driving consumer spending and upgrading the industrial structure is an effective way for Chinese government to seek long-term gains.