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目的:为流感监测系统提供预警方法和预警界值,提高流感疫情监测预警能力。方法:利用2004-2009年嘉定区流感监测数据建立预警数据库,采用控制图法建立预警模型,通过计算、比较灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和绘制ROC曲线,选出合适的预警界值。结果:综合平衡灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、预测功效等指标后,将P55作为嘉定区流感预警界值。结论:控制图法可以作为嘉定区流感早期预警方法。
Objectives: To provide early warning methods and early warning threshold for influenza surveillance system and to improve the ability of influenza surveillance and early warning. Methods: The early warning database was established by using influenza surveillance data from 2004 to 2009 in Jiading District. An early warning model was established by using control charts. The appropriate precautionary threshold was selected by calculating, comparing the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and ROC curve. Results: After comprehensively balancing sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and predictive power, P55 was used as a precautionary threshold in Jiading District. Conclusion: The control chart can be used as an early warning method for flu in Jiading District.