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本文利用近年来最新发展起来的面板单位根及面板协整时间序列方法,对外资与中国外贸之间的关系进行了实证检验。与以往研究中普遍采用的单一截面时序分析方法相比,基于面板数据的时序方法不仅增加了数据自由度,而且综合了截面间信息,因而检验结果具有更高的势(power)值和稳健性。检验结果表明,外资与中国外贸之间存在着较为明显的互补关系。最后,本文对形成这一结果的原因作了简要说明,并指出了该结论对于政策制定的重要含义。
In this paper, the recent development of panel unit root and panel cointegration time series method is used to test the relationship between foreign investment and China’s foreign trade. Compared with the single-section sequential analysis method commonly used in previous studies, the time-series method based on panel data not only increases the degree of freedom of data but also integrates information between sections so that the test results have higher power values and robustness . The test results show that there is a more obvious complementary relationship between foreign investment and China’s foreign trade. Finally, the article gives a brief account of the reasons for the formation of this result and points out the important implications of this conclusion for policy making.