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本文重点研究宏观经济的不确定性如何影响商业银行的信贷行为。论文首先建立了一个简化的投资组合模型论证不确定性与信贷行为的理论关系,而后通过我国各商业银行资产负债表的实际数据,证明宏观经济的不确定性的确对信贷行为有重大影响。当宏观经济不确定性增加时,各商业银行贷款/资产比截面分布的方差收窄;反之则相反。
This article focuses on how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the credit behavior of commercial banks. Firstly, the paper establishes a simplified model of portfolio theory to demonstrate the theoretical relationship between the uncertainty and credit behavior, and then through the actual data of the balance sheets of commercial banks in China, it proves that the macroeconomic uncertainty has a significant impact on credit behavior. When the macroeconomic uncertainty increases, the variance of the cross-section distribution of loans / assets of commercial banks narrows; on the contrary, the opposite.