1995年10月19日,诺贝尔经济学奖授予了在“理性预期”方面做出杰出贡献的美国芝加哥大学教授罗伯特·卢卡斯(Robert Lucas)。正如瑞典皇家科学院评价的那样,卢卡斯的研究工作创造性地发展和应用了被称之为“理性预期”(Rational Expectations)的思想,既改革了宏观经济理论,又改革了对经济政策效应的认识,从而成为当代最有影响的宏观经济学家。 自本世纪30年代英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯创立宏观经济学以来,宏观经济理论便一直由以主张政府积极干预经济为核心的凯恩斯主义思想所主宰,并于50年代达到登峰造极的地步:无论是经济学家还是政府决策者们,无不指望以货币政策和财政 On October 19, 1995, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Robert Lucas, a professor at the University of Chicago who made an outstanding contribution to his “rational expectations.” As the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences commented, Lucas’s work of research creatively developed and applied what he called “Rational Expectations,” which both reform the macroeconomic theory and reform the effects of economic policy Understanding, and thus become the most influential contemporary macroeconomics. Since the founding of macroeconomics by the British economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s, macroeconomic theory has been dominated by Keynesian ideas that advocate a proactive government intervention in the economy and peaked in the 1950s The point: Neither economists nor government policymakers are counting on monetary policy and fiscal