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目的预测三峡库区湖北宜昌段肺结核发病趋势,为制定针对性的预防控制措施提供依据。方法根据三峡库区湖北宜昌段1997-2008年肺结核发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行中长期预测研究。结果预测模型精度检验C=0.1773,P=1.0000,外推预测理想。预测结果显示,2009-2012年三峡库区湖北宜昌段肺结核年发病率分别为260.55/10万,317.41/10万,385.31/10万,466.18/10万。结论预测表明2009-2012年三峡库区宜昌段肺结核年发病率呈上升趋势,提示应大力加强三峡库区范围重点传染病监测,强化综合性预防控制措施,以控制、降低肺结核的发病风险。
Objective To predict the trend of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Yichang Section of Three Gorges Reservoir in Hubei Province, and provide the basis for the development of targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the incidence of tuberculosis in Yichang, Hubei Province from 1997 to 2008 in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, a GM (1,1) model was established for long-term and long-term prediction. Results Prediction model accuracy test C = 0.1773, P = 1.0000, extrapolation prediction ideal. The results showed that the annual incidence of tuberculosis in Yichang Section of Hubei Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 2009 to 2012 was 260.55 / 100000, 317.41 / 100000, 385.31 / 100000, 466.18 / 100000 respectively. Conclusion The prediction indicates that the incidence of tuberculosis in Yichang section of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region will increase from 2009 to 2012, suggesting that the monitoring of key infectious diseases in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area should be strengthened and comprehensive prevention and control measures should be strengthened to control and reduce the incidence of tuberculosis.