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目的探讨矽肺患者的预后影响因素和生存期。方法调查289例矽肺死亡病例临床资料,分析接尘工龄、工种、期别、发病年龄、合并肺结核等因素对预后的影响。单因素分析用Kaplan-Meier法,比较不同组别的生存期分布;多因素用比例风险(Cox)回归模型进行分析矽肺预后影响因素。结果死亡年龄最小为60岁,最大为96岁,平均为(76.03±5.82)岁。平均生存期为(17.28±12.97)a,最小为1a,最大为51a。按P<0.05选取变量,构造生存率S(t)=S0exp(PI),其中PI=-0.45工种+0.70开始接尘时间+0.07接尘工龄-0.79矽肺期别+0.11发病年龄,对患者的生存率进行预测。结论在矽肺预后的各种影响因素中,工种、开始接尘时间、实际接尘工龄、发病年龄、是影响矽肺预后的主要因素。
Objective To investigate the prognostic factors and survival of patients with silicosis. Methods The clinical data of 289 cases of silicosis death were investigated. The prognosis of the patients died of silicosis was analyzed. Factors influencing the prognosis were analyzed including the length of service, type of work, stage, age of onset and pulmonary tuberculosis. Univariate analysis Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the survival distribution of different groups; Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the influencing factors of silicosis prognosis. Results The minimum age of death was 60 years old, the maximum was 96 years old, with an average of (76.03 ± 5.82) years. The average survival time was (17.28 ± 12.97) a, the minimum was 1a and the maximum was 51a. P (subscript t) = S0exp (PI), PI = -0.45 +0.70 start the dusting time +0.07 dusting age -0.79 silicosis +0.11 age of onset, the patient’s Survival rate to predict. Conclusion Among the various influencing factors of silicosis prognosis, the main factors that affect the prognosis of silicosis are the type of work, the time of starting the dust collection, the actual service life of the dust and the age of onset.