近期土地交易活跃,对总需求增长形成较强的支撑。土地买卖是资产交易,和税收不同,卖地收入在增加政府支出能力的同时,不减少私人部门的总财富,另外,和政府发债不同,卖地不推升市场利率。相反,土地交易带动私人部门的房地产开发及相关支出,短期对总需求的拉动效果明显。近期增长超预期反弹,一定程度上反映了土地交易上升的影响。但是长期看,土地财政缺乏自我纠正过度扩张的机制,不利于经济的可持续发展。土地财政导致房地产业和地方融资 Recent land transactions are active, forming strong support for the growth of aggregate demand. Land sale is an asset transaction. Unlike taxation, land sales increase the government’s spending power while not reducing the total wealth of the private sector. In addition, unlike government bonds, land sales do not push up market interest rates. On the contrary, the land transaction drives the private sector real estate development and related expenditures, and the pulling effect on aggregate demand in the short run is obvious. Recent-than-expected rebound in growth, to some extent reflects the impact of rising land transactions. However, in the long run, land finance lacks the mechanism to over-expand itself and is not conducive to the sustainable economic development. Land finance leads to real estate and local financing